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According to a just released report from ANZ and Core Logic, Australia’s housing affordability is the best it’s been since 2016, helped by recent falls in property values in the Sydney and Melbourne markets. Sydney property prices have recorded the most significant decrease, dropping by 14.5% since their 2017 peaks.
In news this month, we begin to see the property market through a post-election lens. SQM Research chief executive Louis Christopher says there has been a confidence boost to forecasts thanks to three factors: the Coalition’s election victory, a Reserve Bank interest rate cut for June to 1.25%, and the APRA proposing a relaxation of lending restrictions.
Housing costs are a big problem for young people. Home ownership is falling fast in Australia, especially among the young and poor. Fewer than half of 25-34 year olds own their home today. Home ownership among the poorest 20% of that age group has fallen from 63% in 1981 to 23% today. At this rate almost half of retirees will be renters in 40 years time.
In news this month, discussion continues to circulate about the upcoming election and the effect that policy changes could have on the property market. According to Nerida Conisbee, chief economist of REA Group, modelling by independent consultants and both sides of government predict negative gearing restrictions will cause continued falling prices while rents will rise.
It hasn’t been a good month for Sydney and Melbourne housing values, with CoreLogic data revealing median housing prices have dropped around $50K in each of the two capitals. However, Melbourne’s market overall does continue to hold up better than Sydney’s.
In news this month, tighter credit conditions are still having a broad dampening effect on buyer activity. This isn’t just with investors, there has also been a considerable decline nationally in owner-occupier lending, according to CoreLogic.
consumers are displaying cautious attitudes towards the property market thanks to the upcoming federal election and potential changes to taxation policy.
The Australian property market peaked in mid 2017. Since then prices have fallen by 6% on average nationally. Prices are down 13% in Sydney and 10% in Melbourne. These falls are the largest since the 1980s, albeit off the back of a large growth spurt which commenced in 2013. Overall, Justin Fabo of Macquarie expects the overall drop may be around 20% in Sydney but that it is very difficult to predict its timing. He says that it is too early to say whether recent improvements in auction clearance rates point to a bottoming in the market.
He says that although the level of housing approvals has dropped dramatically it will be 3 to 4 years before net migration turns the demand/supply balance to lead to a strong recovery in prices.