Republished from Digital Finance Analytics
We finish our household survey update by looking at holders, up-traders and down-traders. Importantly, there are more households seeking to trade down compared with those trading up. You can read the full analysis in the Property Imperative 7, released in September.
Holders – More than 780,000 households are holding property, with 81% owner occupied and 21% investment. 418,000 of these properties are owned outright and are mortgage free. Of these households 54% expect house prices to rise in the next year, but under 1% would consider using a mortgage broker because they are by definition not intending to transact in the next year (99%).
Up Traders – Our survey identified about 1,045,000 households who are considering buying a larger property. Most (92%) are owner occupied. Of these households 12% are expecting to transact within the next 12 months, whilst 56% of households expect house prices to rise in this period.
The main reasons for these households to transact are as a property investment (42% – up from 40% last year), to obtain more space (29% – down from 33% last year), because of a job move (12%) and for a life-style change (13%). Many of these households will require further finance (74% – up from 70% last year) and a quarter will consider using a mortgage broker (22%), whilst 35% of these households are actively saving to facilitate a transaction. We note that prospective future capital gains rated most strongly, the view of property as an investment continues to drive behaviour. The trend is getting stronger.
Down Traders – More than 1.2 million households are considering selling and buying a smaller property, up by 100,000 from last year. Of these 71% are considering an owner occupied property, and 29% an investment property. Of these 680,000 currently have no mortgage and own the property outright. Around 20% of these households expect house prices to rise over the next year, a consistently low figure compared with other segments, whilst 38% expect to transact within 12 months, 10% will consider using a mortgage broker and 8% will need to borrow more. Households will transact to facilitate increased convenience (31%), to release capital for retirement (33%), because of unemployment (2%) or because of illness or death of a spouse (10%).
We see a continued sense among down traders that an investment property is likely to be a factor in their ongoing wealth management strategy, especially given the saving crunch underway at the moment, with deposit rates falling, and the inherent quest for yield.
Author: Martin North
Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics