Investor sentiment impacted by skyrocketing property prices 

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Investor sentiment impacted by skyrocketing property prices 

The PIPA (Property Investment Professionals of Australia) Annual Investor Sentiment Survey 2021 has shed light on what investors are thinking in response to the current property market conditions.

The steady decline in housing affordability, with the annual growth rate in housing values reaching 20.3%, has made its impact. Compared to 41 per cent from last year, 71 per cent of investors now believe prices in their state or territory will increase over the next year.

The pandemic has made remote working more commonplace and investors are looking at relocating due to housing affordability and improved lifestyle factors — such as less crowded cities and less active cases —that may be gained from living in more regional areas.

Investors are also favouring regional and coastal areas for investment purposes, with Queensland becoming the leading location for offering the most potential. 58% of investors believe so, and this is up from last year’s 36 per cent.

Compared to last year’s PIPA survey, it seems the positive sentiment gained from booming property prices has now been mitigated by increasing housing unaffordability and the recent rise in COVID cases, which has impacted investors’ willingness to enter the market.

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How Gen Y Can Enter the Property Market with Less Risk

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How Gen Y Can Enter the Property Market with Less Risk

The current housing price boom is leaving behind a generation of aspiring first home buyers, most of whom fall under that ubiquitous tag "Gen Y" (as if that whole generation is in identical circumstances anyway!). They may not realise it but this generation of aspiring investors is on the threshold of redefining the Australian relationship with real property.

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Getting Rich from Property Investment

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Getting Rich from Property Investment

It's safe, low risk, guaranteed rent, big returns. You go along just to find out more, it looks good, it feels good, you get excited and you don't want to miss out. Some food for thought before you sign on the dotted line and hand over your hard earned savings.

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The loanscape is changing

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And so the squeeze on investors has begun.  The last 3 weeks have rung in big changes to the way lenders assess loan applications by property investors.  

For some time now we have been commenting on the Australian Prudential and Regulation Authority's (APRA) concerns at the high level of investor borrowing.  In March this year investor loan growth reached 10%, markedly higher than growth in the owner occupier segment and way beyond the RBA's preferred target of 6%.  For this target to be achieved, lending to investors needs to fall by around 15%.

At last the banks are getting serious about re-balancing their loan books.  Changes that we have seen so far include:

  • a premium rate being charged for loans to property investors
  • removal of special lending discounts for property investors
  • a serviceability buffer being applied to all investor borrowings
  • reduction in maximum lending ratios to property investors
  • quarantining of other special deals to owner occupier borrowers only

Already, all of the major banks have tightened their policies in some way.  We will probably see many of these changes flow through across the board.  Any lenders who do not fall into line would otherwise be swamped by a flood of investor borrowers, so distorting and making potentially more risky their loan books.

Is this the prick approaching the bubble?  Probably not, but it will have an impact on investor supply and that will inevitably flow through to reduced buyer demand in the property market. The bubble may not burst but the pressure relief valves have certainly been opened.